Over the course of the winter there's nothing like the incessant grinding of the Red Sox rumor mill - you've got your yearly Manny trade buzz, Coco Crisp daydreams, and musings about finding a Gonzalez-caliber defensive shortstop with Lugo's bat and speed. It seems that in the last few weeks of spring training this year things really kicked into high gear, especially with the will-he-or-won't-he Papelbon (anti)drama.
Some of the better rumors included:
Clemens! Can we sign him if he decides to pitch this year!?!?!
Should we trade for Houston's Brad Lidge? Sure he's had a rough season so far, but maybe he'll turn it around! That's why we took a shot with Snyder, right?
How about a deal that will send Lester, Hansen, and Manny to Chicago for Soriano?
Move Lowell and Mirabelli to bring back Edgar Renteria!
There's some crazy stuff out there.
One of the most ludicrous stories I've heard this year is the suggestion that we should deal Manny for the Seattle Mariner's Ichiro, straight up.
First of all, I don't ever want to see Manny in any uniform other than Boston's, and, second of all, and way more importantly, Ichiro is a free agent at the end of this year! We'd be dealing one of the greatest hitters in baseball for four months of a declining former-greatest hitter that we'd then lose at the end of the season to free agency!
Ridiculous.
But, it got me to thinking. What if we really were interested in Ichiro. We could pick him up at the end of the season in free agency. We've certainly demonstrated that we're willing to pay over-and-above top dollar for Japanese talent. As long as John Henry's writing the checks, I say, the moon's the limit!
What if money weren't an option? Put on your Steinbrenner caps now (I kid, I kid, I wouldn't be caught dead in a Yankees cap - or pinstripes) and think about writing an awfully big check for the 2008 free agent class:
Johan Santana - declined an extension with the Twins at $9 million a year for two years. Would probably command $20 million per in free agency.
Torii Hunter - another Twin on the move, Coco's detractors would certainly cheer to see him flying around in center field. Unless of course you could get
Andruw Jones - who will probably be the biggest free agent signing of next year, whoever lands him. There's also
Adam Dunn - who's off to a great start this year for the Reds in the NL. And, of course,
Ichiro Suzuki - I was only kidding about him being on the decline. Sure his numbers have decreased for each of the last four seasons, but he's just gone from being light-years ahead of everybody else, to being miles beyond everybody else. And man, he's fast.
You've also got Roger Clemens (who should definitely end his career in Boston, though I really believe the Red Sox brass wouldn't be too disappointed if he ended up somewhere else, because at least then the organization won't have to field the inevitable performing enhancers probe), Carlos Zambrano (about a zillion sports writers' pick to win the Cy Young), Freddy Garcia (top of the rotation pitching! get 'em while they're young!), and, oh, Mariano Rivera - (he probably won't be coming to Boston).
Oh, oh yeah, I forgot to mention, there is one more potential free agent, maybe, possibly worth a look, you know, if your home town team is in the habit of picking up a new shortstop every single season (I'm looking at you, Theo):
Alex Rodriguez.
Whoa. Whoa. Enough with the throwing of the batteries. Two points:
1. Rodriguez is the best shortstop to ever play the game of baseball.
2. There is no second point, Alex Rodriguez is the best shortstop to ever play the game of baseball!
Now imagine. Just for a second. With all these guys on the table. Here's what the roster could look like:
C Jason Varitek (.269/.348/.450)
1B Kevin Youkilis (.275/.379/.423)
2B Dustin Pedroia (.191/.258/.303)
3B Mike Lowell (.273/.339/.463)
SS Alex Rodriguez (.305/.386/.573)
OF
Manny Ramirez (.314/.411/.600)
Andruw Jones (.267/.345/.505)
JD Drew (.286/.393/.512)
Ichiro Suzuki (.331/.376/.438)
DH David Ortiz (.283/.374/.550)
SP
Josh Beckett (57-45, 3.85)
Johan Santana (78-31, 3.20)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (17-9, 3.62)*
Roger Clemens (348-178, 3.10)
John Lester (7-2, 4.76)
Curt Schilling (207-138, 3.44)
Tim Wakefield (151-134, 4.30)
RP
Joe Nathan (124, 210.2, 1.97)
Brad Lidge (104, 134, 3.29)
Javier Lopez (4, 132, 5.66)
Craig Hansen (0, 41, 6.59)
JC Romero (2, 456, 4.60)
Brendan Donnelly (4, 295, 2.87)
Kyle Snyder (0, 181.2, 5.94)
CL
Jonathan Papelbon (35, 68.1, .92)**
Some quick notes to wrap it up:
-The above stats are career numbers through 2006 from Retrosheet (except Matsuzaka's - see * below).
Hitters (AVG/OBP/SLG), SP (W-L/ERA), Bullpen (Saves, IP, ERA)
-No, I have no idea how to trade for Brad Lidge and keeep Hansen at the same time. Both phenomenal closers (one pre-, one -post) with phenomenal sliders, you figure Houston wouldn't hate to swap them straight up) but it would be cool to have both.
-Lidge (7th) and Nathan (8th) would set up for Papelbon. No question.
-I'd be ok with losing Clemens to the Astros (or retirement) by next year, and Schilling, potentially, and replacing either with Carlos Zambrano, or Freddy Garcia.
-I'd try to hang on to Wily Mo Pena and Doug Mirabelli, and stick Ichiro with them as bench guys. Platoon Wily Mo with Drew in right, and Ichiro with Jones in left.
-I was under the impression that the Sox are thinking about moving Lowell sometime this year, but I have no idea who they'd get to replace him. He' certainly the best third baseman in free agency after this season.
-I also kept my eyes open for first basemen, thinking if they do drop Lowell they could shift Youkilis to third and open a spot for a heavy hitter, but I like it the way it is.
-Pedroia. Sure, his numbers look terrible (especially compared to the rest of the lineup), but the guys upstairs have faith in him, so I'm ok with that.
-Finally, recognizing that six of these guys would be signing ridiculous free agent contracts, I would say the payroll for 2008 might be somewhere in the range of eight hundred seventy-three billion dollars.
*My prediction for Matsuzaka's 2007 MLB season
**Papelbon's numbers are from 2006 only
2 comments:
Tom, Don't worry, this post was not in vain. I remain a loyal reader and I soaked up every bit of your Sox analysis. My thoughts. First, let me start with the proviso that rather than a "numbers guy" I'm a straight up fan. A few observations.
--Tavarez isn't an adequate 5th Starter. How long does it take to come back from blood cancer exactly?
--Pedroia Sox fans are understandably fickle about young talent, but give the guy a shot. Hopefully he's more Mark Loretta than Jody Reed.
--Rocket forget it. Ain't happening. Fuck him. He mailed it in and left for Toronto last I checked.
--JD Drew. You're incredibly overpaid, but looking good. Have some respect and get "7" off of your back before I club you over the head with a louisville fucking slugger.
--Schilling. Avoid Carpel Tunnel and he's money.
--Beckett he learned how to pitch again after apparently forgetting that a diet of straight fastballs isn't going to fool Sheffield, Cano or Bubba Crosby.
--Lugo apparently suffers from a rare case of Nomar Arm.
--Crisp. I go Cuckoo for Coco's AB's right now. Not in a good way. He needs to drop down a bunt. Somebody show him footage of Ichiro. He needs to think Juan Pierre before he thinks Jose Reyes.
--Tek. I'm not giving up on him yet. Edes says there's no way he'll bat exclusively right handed then proceeded to back it up with mumbo jumbo. You can't use stats here, just look at his bat going through the zone, you can practically read the label.
--Matsuzka. Oh boy. This deserves its own post.
We should get together sometime and watch the game.
tyler.gumpright@gmail.com
(your back-room politics post was ill-conceived. Adina was on point slaying you for that.)
Jackie Robinson, may his soul rest in peace.
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