MLB Boston Red Sox 2008 Preview

2008 Red Sox Preview:

Offense:

Manny's the comeback kid this year, I expect above average HRs and RBIs this season, I expect the Sox pick up his option for next year, and he'll continue opening up to the media revealing, slowly but surely, that we really haven't been missing all that much.

Ortiz will recover nicely from the minor knee clean-up and will be the clutch hitter we've all come to expect. I dig the new longer hair and am putting the over-under on new beard styles at seven.

Pedroia and Ellsbury will start slow and level off at just over and just under.300 this year, respectively. We'll see 35 steals from Ellsbury and Lugo will be just behind him with 32.

More of the same from Youk, a sharp decline from Varitek (~.215), a decline in home run power from Lowell (though we'll still see the doubles and average).

Finally, the Moss, Crisp, and Drew platoon will be awkward for a month-and a half while Drew hovers near the Mendoza line, Crisp dips below it, and Francona can't justify defering to Drew's monster contract to keep Moss on the bench with a .310 average. After that we'll see Crisp released or traded for thirty cents on the dollar (couple-a minor leaguers, low draft pick or PTBNL) and Drew start to pick up that giant green f-ing wall in left field and turn into a double machine. Moss will be a good pinch-hitter off the bench and spell Ellsbury in center when needed.

Defense:

I'd like to start the 2008 Defensive Preview by stating that COCO CRISP WAS TOTALLY ROBBED OF THE GOLD GLOVE IN 2007! THEFT OF THE HIGHEST ORDER AND YOU VOTERS SHOULD BE ASHAMED OF YOURSEVES.

Ok, I predict that this year Youk will make some errors, Lowell will not boot 27 balls in the first two weeks of home games, Ellsbury will misjudge a few more fly balls in the triangle, Manny will still surprise runners with his arm (and national announcers with his high OF assist numbers), and Cash will be better than expected catching Wake.

Pitching

The Red Sox training staff should be commended for handling Beckett's back spasms as patiently and cautiously as they have. Slowing down the franchise pitcher's recovery can only help in the long run. We'll see him get roughed up in his first few starts (but I expect the big bats will be out in force and help kick-start his win total); we'll see him start to surge near the All-Star break, and finish strong through September.

Matsuzaka, though, will be another story. Until he stops nibbling and only throws what Varitek calls for, he's going to get hit all over the place. An ERA north of five isn't out of the question in the first half of the season. Expect quality starts and not much else. (Once he does start listening to Tek, though, he'll be absolutely lights out).


Buccholz has to work through rookie jitters. If he can lower expectations for himself, and just try for some quality starts I think we'll see him come into his own as the season progresses.

Colon is going to be the surprise pick-up of the season, the way he's been throwing the ball could see him get ten wins if he keeps a spot in the rotation (subbing for Buchholz early on, and Lester later).

And speaking of Lester, I fear the national media, and Boston sports radio, will continue to harp on his performance, expecting the next coming of Sandy Koufax, and lambasting him for being (just) a decent third or fourth starter. As always, if Lester can keep the ball in the zone he will be fine. He is his own worst enemy. (Though, you Sox fans may recall, when Lester was first called up for some spot starts he seemed to walk the bases loaded and then pitch brilliantly to get out of the jam. He was a left-handed Houdini with runners in scoring position. I therefore move that Francona calls for two intentional walks at the begining of every inning Lester's on the mound (or, to keep the pitch count down, intentional catcher's interference) and then we'll see some Cy Young caliber pitching!).

Wakefield will eat up innings and keep hitters guessing. I should go buy a Wakefield jersey.

Bullpen:

Papelbon will anchor a solid 'pen much like last year. We'll see more of Delcarmen in a set-up role, and Okajima will be used more as a specialist at the back end of the sixth and early seventh innings. I expect Brian Corey to make the roster, though I'd rather have Lopez, as I doubt he'd make it through waivers to Pawtucket. Timlin should be fine after his finger laceration recovers, and I'm sure the staff will watch him for signs of fatigue after the midpoint of the season.


Final numbers for the hurlers:
Beckett: 19-7 3.18
Matsuzaka: 16-13 4.80 (will lead the team in walks)
Lester: 15-14 4.40
Wakefield: 17-16 5.00
Buchholz: 12-6 3.33
Colon: 10-4 3.60
Papelbon: 2-2-33 1.70
Delcarmen: 3-1-5 2.00
Okajima: 3-0-2 2.50


Additional thoughts:

Colon will be the biggest (ha) story of the first half; Matsuzaka-mania will, again, control the media and merchandising; I expect good things from Moss, he's not too far away from an every-day position; Ellsbury's bat will heat up after an initial slump and his speed will continue to wow crowds; Papelbon will get progressively crazier off the mound (and stay just as scary on); Epstein will get shafted on the Crisp deal, because there isn't any way around it.

Standings:

I think Toronto's pitching could give us trouble, we've seen the Sox bat's go north and turn cold before, and Tampa will be trouble, Orioles will wind up dead last, and the Yankees, they are what they are, and I'm already sick of Steinbrenner the Second mouthing off.

American League	Natinal League
Angels win the West	Padres win the West
Tigers win the Central	Cubs win the Central
Sox win the East	Mets win the East
Indians win the Wild Card	Phillies win the Wild Card*

*I'd like to pick the Reds as a surprise Wild Card winner, but every single arm on Dusty Baker's pitching staff is going to fall off by September.

Leave your thoughts in the comments.

-t

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