More Weight!

Time for the Eightieth Academy Awards. Here are my predictions. Feel free to use them to win your annual Oscar Party Ballot and walk away with the pot.

Best Picture

• Atonement
  
• Juno
  
• Michael Clayton
  
• No Country for Old Men
  
• There Will Be Blood

Juno was a surprise nominee, but I don't think it has the chops to win in any of the categories it's nominated in (Though it would certainly run away with Best Teen Flick, Funniest Serious Movie, Best Movie Depicting Ordinary People, Best Dialogue, and Best Line ("I'm a kraken from the sea," "I try really hard, actually," Thanks for having me and my irresponsible daughter over to your house." "Like I'd marry you, you'd be the meanest wife ever ok? And I know that you weren't bored that day. Because there was a lot of stuff on tv and The Blair Witch Project was coming on Stars and you were like, "I haven't seen this since it came out and so we should watch it," but oh no we should just make out instead la la la...")

I'd say it's a toss-up between There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men -- I'm picking NCFOM to take it.

Best Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
  
• Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
  
• Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
  
• Jason Reitman - Juno
  
• Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

I'm picking the Coens in this category. This may be because NCFOM was brilliantly directed, or because I've recently seen The Big Lebowski. Coens will get another statue to join their Fargo Best Original Screenplay.

Best Actor

• George Clooney - Michael Clayton
  
• Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
  
• Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
  
• Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
  
• Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

Daniel Day-Lewis is the heavy favorite, and I'm picking with the field. I thought he got shafted for Gangs of New York and anyone who didn't vote for him then will certainly vote for him now, putting him over the top. A grizzled DDL will top pretty-boy George Clooney any day. Also, no one likes lawyers.

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
  
• Julie Christie - Away from Her
  
• Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose (La môme)
  
• Laura Linney - The Savages
  
• Ellen Page - Juno

No idea on this one, I don't think Ellen Page put up an Oscar worthy performance, but I think overall it's a weak category, so there could be a surprise. This is the most even category out there. I'm going with the foreign language title - Marion Cotillard.

Best Supporting Actor

• Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
  
• Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
  
• Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
  
• Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
  
• Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

Hey, Casey Affleck getting an Academy nod. Way to go, Boston. I like Javier Bardem for this award, but Michael Clayton seems to be a favorite among critics, so Wilkinson might pull it off, and don't underestimate some Capote carry-over for Hoffman, who has been tremendously outstanding his entire career, and might be making up for it the rest of the way. I'm still picking the Western.

Best Supporting Actress

• Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
  
• Ruby Dee - American Gangster
  
• Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
  
• Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
  
• Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

I would have liked to see Allison Janney in this category (again, she wouldn't have won, but "verbally abusing an ultrasound tech for comedic affect" is on my shortlist of "reasons I'd nominate you for an oscar" so there you have it).

But I have seen I'm Not There and Cate Blanchett was absolutely amazing as rock 'n roll star Bob Dylan. She runs away with it.

Best Original Screenplay

• Juno - Diablo Cody
  
• Lars and the Real Girl - Nancy Oliver
  
• Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
  
• Ratatouille - Brad Bird
  
• The Savages - Tamara Jenkins

Juno was good, but come on, a story about a guy falling in love with a life-size doll? Lars and the Real Girl wins. I'm also predicting a quirky acceptance speech.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Atonement - Christopher Hampton
  
• Away from Her - Sarah Polley
  
• The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Ronald Harwood
  
• No Country for Old Men - Joel and Ethan Coen
  
• There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson

NCFOM again. From what I understand it's a faithful reproduction of the book and a hell of a good movie. I wouldn't be surprised to see The Diving Bell and the Butterfly win here, but it's four-to-one. (so's There Will Be Blood, NCFOM is two-to-one, and the other to movies split the remaining odds (eight to one each))

(I could probably be a bookie -- I understand fractions. [edit] I understand fractions, but I may not really know how they apply to odds. Maybe I couldn't be a bookie. Or, maybe I could, but my odds would be fair and I'd never make any money)

Some closing thoughts:

Best Animated Movie is a stupid category. If your animated movie isn't good enough to get nominated for a real category (Disney's Beauty and the Beast 1991 Best Song, Best Original Score Winner, Best Picture nominee) you should just be happy for the millions of parents who'll be forking over $25 a pop for the DVD to shut up their whiny spoiled brats instead of plying the Academy with yacht rides and solid gold chocolate bars so they'd invent a category that can only support two thirds of a movie every year.

Disney might get another Original Song, since three-fifths of the nominees in that category are Enchanted.

And I'd handicap the technical categories for you too, because I'm normally right on the money with those, but it's thirty degrees in here, and my fingers are cold.

Oh, and just so you know, of the nominated movies discussed above, I've only seen Juno and I'm Not There. I liked them both. (I really liked Juno).

-t